Nonparametric spatial-temporal analysis of SO2 across Europe

Marco Giannitrapani, Adrian Bowman, Marian Scott, Ron Smith
Dept. of Statistics, University of Glasgow, G12 8QW Scotland, U.K.
Tel: +44(0)141 330 6118 - Fax: +44(0)141 330 4814

From the 1970's, a co-ordinated international programme monitoring acidifying air pollution was initiated in direct response to observed acidification. At the same time, several international protocols on the reduction of acidifying and eutrophying emissions (SO2, SO4, etc.) were also agreed. This work presents an evaluation of the observed spatial and temporal trends in SO2 in Europe for the last quarter of the twentieth century, on the basis of data from EMEP (Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe). The policy question of interest is whether the protocols have resulted in a real improvement in environmental quality and a real change in the acidifying environment. In the first part of the work, we report on nonparametric modelling of the temporal trends, accounting for the effect of meteorological covariates using generalized additive models (GAMs). The second part of the work considers the spatial patterns in the SO2 field and their temporal evolution.

Keywords: additive model, smoother, back fitting algorithm, variogram

In: McRoberts, R. et al. (eds).  Proceedings of the joint meeting of The 6th International Symposium On Spatial Accuracy Assessment In Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences and The 15th Annual Conference of The International Environmetrics Society, June 28 – July 1 2004, Portland, Maine, USA.


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