An Analysis of Propagate Uncertainties in Ecological Niche Spatial Modelling

Marco Antonio Marinelli and Robert Corner
Department of Spatial Sciences Curtin University of Technology Perth, Western Australia
{m.marinelli, r.corner}@bom.gov.au

Abstract: BIOCLIM is a probabilistic ecological niche model that can be used to investigate and predict species distributions for both native and agricultural species. Its results have greatest validity when studying relatively large (subcontinental) areas. The version of BIOCLIM used in this study uses three basic spatial climatic input layers (monthly maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation layers) and a dataset describing the current spatial distribution of the species of interest. Our work has investigated how uncertainty in the input data propagates through to the estimated spatial distribution for Field Peas (Pisum sativum) in the agriculturally significant region of south west Western Australia. Our results clearly show the effect of uncertainty in the input layers on the predicted specie's distribution map. In places the uncertainty significantly influences the final validity of the result and the spatial distribution of the validity also varies significantly.

Keywords: BIOCLIM; prediction; uncertainty

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